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Accueil >> Forum >> Boeing Sets Loose Date to Replace 737 Forum Aviation civile
Boeing Sets Loose Date to Replace 737
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Message de Werkur737 - Envoyé le 07 Dec 7:58 |
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Well, i read this from another aviation forum.
Boeing will decide on a plan to replace its popular 737 aircraft by 2012 at the latest.
Last year, the company started seriously considering a successsor for the 737, for which Boeing has won more than 6,000 orders sice its 1967 debut.
Boeing must ensure it has the right set breakthrough technologies in engines, aerodynamics, materials and other systems to top the 737's efficiency.
Boeing estimates will be ready with a replacement for the 737 sometime in the middle of next decade.
the 737 competes with Airbus' hot-selling A320, wich went into service in 1988. Airbus says it has sold more than 5,500 A320s.
I appreciate comments focusing in the possibly new technologies, some already to be used in 787, and about the set date of 737 replacements. We have to point that 737 will be flying for more than 30 years.
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Message de FLX - Envoyé le 07 Dec 14:20 |
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I read fm FlightGlobal that P&W is already working on the nex-gen geared turbofan for Boeing 737RS/Airbus NSR class aircraft(i.e. 25,000-40,000lb thrust). Don't know if this project is related to IAE(1 of the 2 engine suppliers for A320 family) or P&W is doing this alone though.
I believe the stated timing is possible fm a R&D resources point-of-view. 1st, Boeing currently has no new major development program(787-10 is only a derivative of an existing major program that's nearly finished) except the 748 family. By the time, the 748 family EIS in 09, Boeing can deploy even more R&D resources on the new 737RS program. 2nd, it's logical to expect a lot of new tech on the 787 template such as CFRP, bleedless turbofan, active turbulence control, cockpit avionics as well as the whole new set of cabin environment enhancements will find their way into the new 737RS program. This saves tons of development effort+time.
Fm a mkt entry timing perspective, it also makes sense as the 737NG, basically the 2nd 737 upgrade(Albeit a major one), will be 14yrs old by 2012 since its EIS. By then, many customers will be ready to order something a lot more radical and hv it EIS around 2015......17 yrs after 737NG EIS or 27yrs after A320 EIS.
On the other hand, I strongly believe Airbus won't hv the competing NSR plan ready for program launch by 2012 to replace the A320 family. 1st, we all know their engineering resources hv only began to be freed fm various wiring design problems on the 388. 2nd, the A350 program is such a giant development beast that is going to eat-up most if not all Airbus R&D resources at least until the 359 is born(EIS in 2013 if there're no major delays). 3rd, the development progress of the A400M(Airbus Military) is everything but smooth. For these reasons, I just can't see how Airbus can magically come up with more R&D resources to be focused on their NSR plan within the nex 5yrs.
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Message de speedbird9468 - Envoyé le 07 Dec 15:40 |
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You may be right FLX. But the report mentions that boeing sold over 6000 737 models and Airbus is approaching the 5500 mark. Iam suspecting that Airbus will break that 6000 barrier in the next few years. Also, I also have gut feeling that we will see airbus in the next few years launch a product similar to that of the 757 with slighlty more range. Remember the 757 has grown in popularity since the production line was retired. So why not develop an aircraft capable of doing the same as the 757 but more technologically advanced. Although the 757 has many years to go yet. Its not gonna go on as long as we like to think. Its not what you know its who you know.
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Message de FLX - Envoyé le 10 Dec 10:24 |
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Given that Airbus R&D resources will be stretched so thin in the nex 5 yrs, may I know where do U think they'll find the necessary engineering resources in such a short time to launch your suggested 757 program?
Also, I hv serious difficulty understanding how the A320 family sales of, say 5,500 or 6,000 in total, has anything to do with whether Airbus hv sufficient R&D resouces to launch another major program in 5 yrs. Even for some weird reasons the A320 family reach 10,000 total sales nex yr, I still can't see how that will change the Airbus R&D picture....it's not like there're tons of aerospace R&D engineers specifically experienced in advanced narrow-body airliner concepts waiting around unemployed until Airbus is ready to offer them jobs U know....
No doubt 752s are becoming popular especially for U.S. carriers doing transatlantic. CO is doing what amounts to carpet-bombing every smaller city in Europe fm EWR(Newark) with their 752 fleet. DL is doing the same with their 752s fm JFK & ATL(Atlanta). UA and NW hv started to supplment their widebody transatlantic services with 752s fm smaller U.S. airports to major Euro hubs. However, why 752? It has 0% to do with the shut-down of the 757 production line and has little to do with any advanced/superior tech(If any) of the 752 itself. The further/deeper fragmentation of the transtlantic mkt is the primary & overiding reason. 752 just happened to be the smallest thing capable to fly almost all non-stop transatlantic routes yr-round with reasonable economics. Majority of 752s, which all major U.S. carriers hv got at least 50-60 and usually near 100, were originally designed and did operated for yrs within shorter N.America/domestic routes. These planes are getting old(Most entered service before the late 80s) and couldn't endure the frequent take-off/landing cycles of shorter-range ops without frequent maintenance. The solution: Put them on longer-range transatlantic routes where Revenue $ per cycle will be higher. These 752s will easily stay around & even beyond 2015 as major U.S. carriers are not typically aiming for a young fleet. Relative to the U.S. majors, Euro 752 operators hv got small fleets. Except BA, most are charter/smaller airlines so they represent a tiny 757 replacement mkt...not an urgent priority for both manufacturers. For airlines which need the 752's size but not the range, Airbus is pushing the 321 and Boeing is pushing the 739ER anyway.
Given these circumstances, I'm 99% convinced that any 757 replacement will be in the form of the biggest variant of the Boeing 737RS/Airbus NSR family. Such variants will hv max range beyond the 752 but still retain substantial similarities with the smaller members of their respective families. In other words, they'll also be the replacements for 739ER and 321. In the late 70s when development work begun for the 757 family, it was tech difficult to merge the short-range focused 737 with the medium-range focused 757 into a single narrow-body program. Now, that's no longer the case(e.g. 737-700ER flies a lot further than 752). Most importantly, it no longer makes financial sense to pursue a separate program only to serve a 757 sized/range aircraft mkt like in the late 1970s.
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Message de speedbird9468 - Envoyé le 10 Dec 12:00 |
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If you mention the 737-700ER has a bigger range than the 752 then why say quote ''752 just happened to be the smallest thing capable to fly almost all non-stop transatlantic routes yr-round'' when the 737-700 can also do it as you mention later in the text. Then surely the the 737-700 is the smallest narrow body to do TATF?? here operators that also use the A319 an exclusive sector yes but they do it.
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Message de FLX - Envoyé le 11 Dec 11:49 |
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speedbird9468:
I think U hv mistaken a few things on your statements.
1. 73G(737-700) definitely has shorter range than 752. Only 73GER(737-700ER) has longer range than the 752.
2. Do U know the range diff between a 73G and the 73GER? It's huge! Easily visible similarities include the shared the same physical fuselage dimensions(Therefore, the same max seats in theory) and both being in the 737NG family. In reality, 73GER is a customized 73G configured to carry much fewer pax in much greater comfort than the 73G but fly further.
3. Do U know how many airline has ordered/operated 73GER?
Grand total: 1 and it's NH(ANA). Boeing states it can carry 126 pax in 2-class on the brochure but in reality, the NH aircraft only has 36 super-spacious biz-class seats so it has poor op costs relative to 73G. Fine by NH because they ordered this type only for the ULTRA-premium mkt between India/China and Japan basically shuttling sr. executives/engineers non-stop between HQ in Japan and the 2 rapidly growing giant local economies for huge Corp like Toyota. The margin/yield is extremely high(Avg fare is about US$5,000 or above for an 8hrs flight) but very low pax volume. Although it has great range, 73GER is an aircraft for a tiny niche.
4. I don't think I need to explain as U probably already know the huge diff in pax capacity and op costs per seat between 752 and 73G(2-class 129 seats as per Boeing but airline will be lucky if they manage to sell discounted Y fare to pax in such high-density configuration), let alone the even smaller capacity, in reality, of the 73GER.
5. Do U think large #s of the secondary transatlantic routes now served by 752s are actually 100% ULTRA-premium mkt and can totally replaced by all-premium seat 73GER and sustain the poor op costs just like what NH is doing between Japan and India/China? Extremely unlikely. Even the A319(Actually, A319LR to be precise and similar to 73G/73GER in size) now on the transtlantic routes are confined to the premium low-seat-density mkt niche. Airlines will quickly go broke if they start to replace 752 with A319 for non-premium transatlantic mkts which really is the mainstream.
6. Do U think major U.S. carriers will, for some unknown reasons, all of a sudden decide the secondary transatlantic routes now operated by 752s are becoming all premium and therefore change tack and start to invest in brand new 73GER and let the mass surplus of 752s collect dust on the ground? In our dreams may be.... The 752 is indeed the smallest thing capable to fly transatlantic non-stop economically WITHIN THE INVENTORY OF THE U.S. MAJORS. Also, don't forget the economics part: Given similar seat-density(Therefore similar fare/yield), 73G/73GER(Even in non-premium config) always hv poor economics relative to 752.
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Message de Spot planes - Envoyé le 17 Dec 23:49 |
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The biggest problem facing both Boeing to replace B737 and Airbus to replace A320 is what new technology can be used to make the product better (e.g. more fuel efficient, etc.). There are so many things you can do to the structure . The technology both Boeing and Airbus are waiting for must be revolutionary from the existing technology. IMHO they are waiting for a better propulsion system, may be the more mature ultra high by-pass unducted fan or blended wing/body.
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Message de speedbird9468 - Envoyé le 18 Dec 23:39 |
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Hi FLX. Yes your right the 757 is profitable acroos the Atlantiv but its still not the smallest pax aircraft do it. thing to fly non-stop cause as you mention the 737-700er and the A319Lr ar regulars acroos the atlantic
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Message de FLX - Envoyé le 18 Dec 13:01 |
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Spot planes:
U're spot-on. I did a little research and found that EU has actually commissioned/funded RR to work on propulsion R&D specifically for the Airbus NSR as part of EU's environmental protection initiatives. EU has done the same for other tech to be used on NSR too under the same initiatives and will make a 2015 EIS date possible. This is not far-off fm the targeted schedule of 737RS at all. So I now correct my earlier statement and believe it's possible for Airbus to come up with an A320 family replacement in a timeframe similar to the 737RS.
Gosh, massive gov't subsidies to commercial ventures can always change a company's outlook completely.
speedbird9468:
Look, all I'm saying is that 752s are the major driving force behind the transatlantic mkt fragmentation phenomenon(i.e., more smaller cities on both sides being served) and this wouldn't hv happened if such ops are unprofitable in the mainstream mkt segment and relied only upon smaller types such as 73GER and 319LR. That's Y-class air service available to everyday folks like U & me who doesn't hv a massive corp travel expense budget.
If we're just talking about what's the smallest thing technically possible and regularly does transatlantic nons-stop, it'll most likely be a Bombardier C-series or Learjet or Citation or GlobeMaster or Embrarer private biz jet operated by any of the transatlantic air-limo airlines.
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Message de speedbird9468 - Envoyé le 18 Dec 15:35 |
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Yes Flx I agree with with you. One interesting point though is I wasn't aware the Learjet could go Transatlantic non stop. I teach a couple Lear 60 and 55 pilots who regularly flr REC to EU destinations and they always stop in the Canary Islands for fuel which is betwwen 5/6 hours maybe less. My other question is does etops affect private and military planes?
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Message de FLX - Envoyé le 19 Dec 6:23 |
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speedbird9468:
1st, I know relatively little about Corp/Private jet but a little clarification is needed here: There're plenty of Corp/Private jets doing 7-9hrs Trans-NORTH Atlantic non-stop between the EU and the Eastern U.S. as far as ATL(Atlanta). Flights between S.America and Europe are a bit longer and like U said, many such jets may require a refuel stop @ the Canary. On the other hand, both the Bombardier GlobalExpress and Gulfstream V/G550(My last employer has 1 which I saw in DLC when our CEO arrived China non-stop fm our Global HQ in the Eastern U.S.) hv more than sufficient range to fly Tokyo-NYC nonstop(Over 12hrs) which is a far greater distance than any Trans-N.Atlantic and the EU-REC route. A few Learjet variants can do the shortest Trans-N.Altantic routes non-stop but most can't.
2nd, I understand ETOPS only govern larger(At least 40 pax per flight..I guess) civilian airliner operated by schedule/charter commercial airlines that sell individual seats to the general public. Flying a Corp/private jet owned/chartered by U or your company doesn't count and basically, U can fly non-stop for as long as U like(Or your fuel tank permits if U your destination is not heaven) and nobody will stop U.
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Message de FLX - Envoyé le 19 Dec 6:39 |
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Op rules governing each military aircraft type in a country is, obviously, set by the military and has no connection with the civilian air transport world's regulations. In theory and given the tech+logistical capability, a country's airforce can keep a military transport flying nonstop for as long as the crew can endure if air-to-air refueling facilities are in place.
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Message de speedbird9468 - Envoyé le 19 Dec 11:56 |
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Hi FLX.
I had a suspition that was the case regarding private/corporate craft. As for military craft there probably exempt from many regulations. We get a weekly RAF flight here in REC on route to the Falklands and UK vice versa. Using a variety of traffic including C130, VC10, L1011 etc etc.
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Message de FLX - Envoyé le 20 Dec 10:24 |
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I'm thinking the EU is essentially underwriting the development of the Airbus NSR by directly making those R&D grants specifically targeted @ the tech needed for the 320 family replacement. This time, these EU subsidies are not indirect, hidden, defense cross-subsidies, free R&D by gov't agencies, etc. but rather given in cash directed @ a specific commercial product and publicly announced......a potential dispute @ the WTO. I can't help but wonder what if Boeing & their risk-sharing partners get similar sized R&D grants fm their respective gov'ts targeted specifically @ the 737RS? Program launch can probably move forward to as early as 2010(When all R&D will be completed on the 748i, 789 and 783) instead of the current 2012 target. This will put the 737RS into the mkt at least a couple yrs ahead of the NSR.
speedbird9468:
Wow, those RAF VC10s are still active? Are they still flying with the original RR low-bypass(Ultra noisy+thirsty by today's std) engines? Even the ancient KC135s(707s for USAF) still active today hv been re-engineed decades ago with the modern CFM56s. I remember most, if not all RAF VC10s, are ex-BA. BA started replacing VC10s with the more advanced 742s+L1011s as early as 74. Now, 742s are long gone fm the BA fleet and mostly scraped but VC10s are still flying even though all VC10s were built in the 60s! Pretty amazing life for this 40+yrs old bird!
I don't think these VC10s or L1011s will be around for long as RAF's A330 MRTT will come online pretty soon....better catch the thundering noise & beautiful sight of the RAF VC10s @ REC while they last.
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Message de speedbird9468 - Envoyé le 20 Dec 12:00 |
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Yep. They are as noisy, thirsty etc etc. I have to listen to my scanner to check when they arrive. The most popular one is the C130. Yes over 40 years old and going strong. British engineering at its best. Does anyone know if there are any Victors still flying?
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