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Home >> Forum >> RYANAIR EXPANSION PLANS (?) Civil aviation forum
RYANAIR EXPANSION PLANS (?)
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Message of Freshbrook - Sent 23 Jan 12:58 |
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With RYR/FR, that well know Low Expectation Carrier, (thanks to Capt Bill for that one), continuing to receive many more 737-800s this year and only 5 earmarked for withdrawal, where are the additional aircraft being deployed?
I believe there are already 18 operating bases in Europe and 14 in UK/Ireland. Is there any information out there on plans for more bases or are they boosting capacity and routes from existing bases?
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Message of CPH - Sent 23 Jan 13:23 |
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Message of captain bill - Sent 23 Jan 15:58 |
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Message of Lukasz - Sent 23 Jan 16:45 |
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Since ages ago, there have been plans for an FR base in Poland. Originally it was supposed to be WRO, but WizzAir (W6) beat them to it (opening in March 2010). FR are aggressively expanding their route network to KRK now, which is still up for grabs, and it is the 2nd busiest airport in Poland, so it might be a likely target.
So far they were reluctant to place a base in Poland as the airports don't give in easily to their financial demands. And Shannon's example will make any airport think twice before giving FR too much. They have been also complaining about high ATC charges.
btw FR is only the 3rd airline in Poland. They are facing a very competent competition from WizzAir. Figures for 2008 are:
1. LOT Polish Airlines: 5.0m pax (28% share, down 8% from 2007)
2. WizzAir: 3.4m (19% share, up 24%)
3. Ryanair: 2.9m (16% share, up 25%)
4. Lufthansa: 1.1m (6% share, up 20%)
WizzAir has 5 bases in Poland right now (11 A/C, total fleet 25 A/C), and they will be adding new planes to them. They have 114 A320s on order. They offer pretty much the same service as FR.
So far, FR and W6 have been trying to avoid each other, i.e. not compete on any routes. But they are on a collision course without a doubt, as they will both need to expand in the next 2-3 years, and the market is pretty saturated already.
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Message of Freshbrook - Sent 23 Jan 18:17 |
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Thanks for your responses so far, guys. Interesting topic. It will be interesting to see if Wizz Air's ambitious fleet expansion will actually come to pass. Airbus will certainly hope so.
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Message of SJR - Sent 28 Jan 18:29 |
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Hmm whilst you say that i have noticed that at least two of the Wizzair fleet are due in for painting at Manchester so potentially they could be leaving the fleet. If they are to leave the fleet i suspect it will be a case of get rid of the older aircraft as Ryanair has done. Other than this i see no reason why they have come in. As for Ryanair expansion rumours are suggesting they have now cancelled a return to Manchester this summer and where they are likely to use these new aircraft they are aquiring im not entirely sure.
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Message of darthdla - Sent 30 Jan 22:09 |
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It seems like RYR is quite likely to open a base in Barcelona's Airport. Right now they fly and have a base in REU (Reus, 100km Souther, 2 planes) and GRO (Girona, 100Km Norther, 9+1 planes). There are some confirmed slots for BCN and the most important ones are for those on really early hours... flying at least once daily to BGY, CRL, LPA, IBZ and SDR. That means that they could open a base with up to 5 planes all of a sudden. They just have to confirm which slots are finally using or not for next SS.
So, it seems like they are going to break also into domestic flights from second biggest airport in Spain (RYR already has a 10 planes base at Spanish main airport in MAD)..
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Message of captain bill - Sent 31 Jan 9:36 |
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It looks as if FR will if they are not already the dominant force in Europe which is great for them and for the type of customer they attract. I'm not so sure if it is good for the industry and I dont just say that because it is FR (but if and it is a big IF) FR went pop what a mess the European aviation industry would be in.
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Message of Lukasz - Sent 31 Jan 12:57 |
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FR are the biggest European airline right now, and they do have a chance to become the largest world airline. But at the same time, they hold only a fraction of the market. It is worth noting that they have created that market for themselves - the legacy carriers did not lose much, if at all, traffic in absolute numbers.
Here are some figures from their recent investor presentation:
Ireland - 45% of market share
Italy - 19% of market share
UK - 15% of market share
Spain - 13% of market share
Germany - 7% of market share
France - 7% of market share
I believe that only covers short-haul traffic market.
As for FR going pop - a more likely scenario is that they might decide they don't want to operate at some airports, as it is below the break-even point. A good example is Shannon, from where they are nearly pulling out in a couple of months, after taking 90% of the traffic there. It will be interesting to see if any other airline can fill the void. CityJet tried to open a route to CDG, about a year ago, and they failed miserably. It probably means that most of FR's routes are just too thin for any other airline.
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Message of Lukasz - Sent 01 Feb 14:11 |
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The war has began. FR will start new routes from Milan Bergamo to Wroclaw and Poznan. They are directly competing with WizzAir's ones. In return, W6 will start a connection between Weeze and Katowice, to compete with FR's Weeze-Krakow.
Even though I am normally all for competition, a direct war like that usually results in a short surge of available options, quickly followed by one of the competitors withdrawal or bankruptcy. And it is by no means certain that FR will be the winning party - W6 is very well entrenched in Poland. They started the whole thing by setting up a base in WRO, which was the largest FR airport in Poland.
However, if W6 were to lose a full scale war with FR, their existence will be very uncertain. For FR, it would only be a minor setback. Hopefully they will just find a balance, as having both airlines is crucial for proper development of the Polish market in the coming years.
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Message of Mabel - Sent 01 Feb 17:09 |
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Message of Lukasz - Sent 01 Feb 17:35 |
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W6 is almost the same as FR. They are a bit nicer, but it is essentially the same business model. They allow pre-boarding of families with children, but you have to pay for bags, food, etc.
If the flight is cancelled or delayed, you are on your own. Although it happened to me once (fog), and they e-mailed me a normal (not premium) number where a person was waiting to re-book my reservation. And they allowed me to pick any flight from their network, on any day I wanted - without any restrictions. That would probably not be as smooth with FR.
Their main selling point in the Eastern/Central Europe is that, unlike FR, they have local bases, which allows them to have FAs speaking the local language. I know it is very important for the Polish people, as many of them, even if they live in UK/IE don't really speak English. That is probably why W6 are bigger than FR in Poland (2008, W6=3.4m pax, FR=2.9m).
But FR is big enough to eat them for breakfast if they choose so. Regardless of service standards, if FR offers much lower fares, and dense enough route network, people will go with them.
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Message of FLX - Sent 02 Feb 8:51 |
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Lukasz:
FR<...do have a chance to become the largest world airline>? I highly doubt that given all the DL, AF-KLM, AA, LH, etc. old big boys out there. All U need to do is take a quick look @ the key measures of the top 20 biggest airlines list in the world(wikipedia.com).
Just aiming to be the largest LCC in the world will be difficult enough for FR. FR still has a very long way to go before it can match the op scale+size of today's Southwest and don't forget highly successful newcomers such as AirAsia Group which is already similar to/a bit bigger than EasyJet in size AND growing much faster than FR.
It may be very possible for FR to become the largest airlines in Europe. And 40yrs ago, that meant a good chance to become the world's largest. But times and our world hv changed and being the largest in Europe no longer offers a better chance to be the largest in the world.
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Message of Lukasz - Sent 02 Feb 11:06 |
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Well there are two main measures of the size of an airline: RPK/M or pure pax number. FR has no chance with RPKs, having no long haul service. But in pax numbers they will grow to over 80m in just a couple of years. They still have over 100 738s to be delivered in the next 3 years, and they will fill them up with people. I have no doubt about it.
With 80-85m pax, it would leave only SouthWest and AA being bigger. 100m pax is probably going to be hard to reach for FR alright. Hmm... I suppose we should count the merged DL+NW as the largest airline now. Ok, FR will have a solid 4th place in the world :) They would need to find a way to become much bigger in France and Germany, and it is just not happening now.
Asia has a very good chance to become the largest aviation market in the world alright. I can easily see Kingfisher flying A380s with 800pax on domestic Indian routes. But it will take a good while before they reach 80-100m pax levels. And with a bit of luck, we will run out of world oil reserves first.
As for other measures, like fleet size, it's hard to compare hundreds of CRJs flying around the States, with 738s. Is there a comparison of airlines based on RPK/Ms anywhere?
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Message of speedbird9468 - Sent 02 Feb 12:40 |
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Message of FLX - Sent 03 Feb 10:24 |
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Lukasz:
Sorry to rain on your FR parade again but facts are facts and many regulars on this forum know that I hv a nasty habit of sharing them here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world%27s_largest_airlines_by_fleet#By_fleet_size
Actually, key measures of airlines size go well beyond RPK/M and pax #s but those 2 are the most commonly used.
In terms of RPM, SouthWest, <having no long haul service> same as FR and doesn't even fly many domestic medium range sectors such as Hawaii+Alaska, ranks #8 in the world while FR is no where near the World's Top 10.
In terms of pax #s, DL+NW and again SouthWest are the only 2 airlines in the world that break the 100m mark last yr. FR ranks #8 @ 65m is still below EU rivals LH and AF+KLM in 09 exactly as I described on my earlier post here. Even CZ(ChinaSouthern)which experience similar growth rate as FR ranks ahead of FR.
Yes, FR, with 218+units of 737 today, still has 104firm orders+84options(All facts) to be delivered in the nex 3yrs helping it to grow to your claimed 80m(Sorry, I'm unaware of this projection/Corp goal re FR). I also fully expect SouthWest, with 540+units of 737 today, to grow slower than FR. However, it's not standing still in the nex few yrs with 98firm orders+62options+54purhase rights outstanding. Do U doubt SouthWest will NOT fill them up with people like FR? Similar to FR in France+Germany, there're 15states(Including Hawaii which is a hi-traffic mkt and will never see hi-speed rail competing)+Canada/Mexico not served by Southwest today.
India is just 1 of many large mkts in Asia-Pcf and there are much bigger fish than Kingfisher swimming in this region ALREADY...the reason why CZ ranks #7 in the world TODAY re pax#. It will NOT take a good while before CZ reach 80m+ pax level....it'll be in 2yrs based on current growth rate. Heck, CZ just needs to grow by 11%(Frankly, a very modest projection for any majors in China) in 2010 to reach practically the same pax# level of AFKLM in 2008(AFKLM was the biggest in Europe in 2008).
In terms of fleet size, SouthWest and CZ are much much bigger than FR fm whatever angle U wish to take. SouthWest's fleet has exactly ZERO RJs+turboprops and CZ's 297-strong fleet has a grand total of 11 RJs+turboprops but dozens of widebodies. Yes, comparing large fleet of RJs with large fleet of 738s is hard and I can use the same argument to claim that EK may be hv the largest fleet in the world soon because it's hard to compare large fleet of 738s with large fleet of 330s+777s+388s.
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Message of Mabel - Sent 04 Feb 17:21 |
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However, FR is the largest airline in the world WHOSE FLEET CONSISTS OF ONLY ONE AIRCRAFT TYPE. FR has a fleet of 218 738s and zero of anything else. WN has a mix of 733, 735 and 73G.
There's also been some whispering of WN negotiating with Boeing to buy 30-40 739ERs to allow it to commence flights from LAS, PHX and OAK to Hawaii and give it more capacity on high-yield flights.
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Message of speedbird9468 - Sent 04 Feb 17:53 |
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Message of captain bill - Sent 04 Feb 21:32 |
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I used to do cargo charters with them when they flew BAC One/Elevens. Changed days, changed company, changed management, changed my mind about them.
I also flew in there 737-230 ex LH
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Message of Lukasz - Sent 09 Feb 11:15 |
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Message of Lukasz - Sent 09 Feb 18:46 |
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