Initial CO/UA 787 routes

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....-newsArticle&ID=1437748&highlight=

Continited has announced its initial 787 routes will be IAH-AKL and IAH-LOS. Both are very questionable in terms of demand...IAH-LOS could possibly work because of the oil industry, although the demand is likely better suited to a 762. As for IAH-AKL I don't see how there will be enough pax to fill a 787 several times a week. IMHO Continited would be better suited flying the 787s on European routes out of DEN and IAH and African/Middle Eastern routes out of EWR.

Agreed these are lower traffic routes relative to DEN/IAH/EWR-EU/Africa/Mid-East. However, IAH-AKL/LOS also offer no current and foreseeable competition.....can't say the same re the aforementioned routes to EU/Africa/Mid-East.

As for IAH-LOS, this is clearly a low traffic but very hi-end premium mkt. Existing CO J-class product on 762 is poorly suited for such mkt. The new CO J-class I hv already seen on its website is a lot more optimal/appropriate for such route and will be nearly impossible not to find it on CO's brand new 787 fleet. And believe me, that new J takes up much more cabin space than the old CO BusinessFirst. As a result, there'll probably be only slight increase in total seat count 762 vs 788.

As for flying IAH-AKL with 788, I'm also puzzled by this CO move a bit. The only explanation I can think of is that AKL is a Star hub and well-placed to facilitate heavy+frequent connecting traffic to/fm tons of AU cities via the extensive NZ Trans-Tasman network. E.g. 1-stop service fm Houston to Sydney/Melbourne/Brisbane/Adelaide/Great Barrier Reef/etc. Today, the quickest way to fly Houston<->Sydney, for example, is still a 1-stop route via LAX anyway via any carrier combo......

CO will be installing the new J on all widebodies, including the 762. Even though Texas has the oil industry and a large West African expat community, I don't see enough demand to LOS to fill 174 seats on a 762 several times a week, much less ~250 seats on a 788. The 6512 nm between IAH and LOS would scrape the top end of the 6590 nm range of the 762ER and likely result in frequent westbound stopovers (SID or BDA), but I just don't see this route being economically viable with a 788. As for IAH-AKL, I have to wonder if the execs responsible for route planning were smoking something. Star hub or not, the demand just isn't there. The only conceivabe way to make it work is to stop over in PPT and pick up on the leisure market between the eastern USA/Canada/Europe and Tahiti but even that's a stretch. But New Zealand will win the World Cup before IAH-AKL nonstop ever becomes viable.

Std 3-class config<Using 9abreast in Y now popular for 787 customers> for a 788 returns about 240seats. Given that the latest Gen Intercon J-class seat of most carriers take up more space than the typical FIRST class seat as defined by Boeing<Or Airbus>, I'm betting CO's 2-class layout on its 788 will yield in practice no more than about 200seats assuming the same premium vs Y ratio as today's CO 762<I also strongly suspect CO's 788 will hv a slightly heavier ratio toward premium seats than its existing 762>.