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Inicio >> Foro >> Where are we going? Foro sobre la aviación civil
Where are we going?
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Mensaje de Werkur737 - Enviado el 23 May 8:12 |
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Hi all,
I'm wondering now where are we going. Fuel cost higher and higher to airlines and it seems to be the end of the world for them ( Alliances\Ticket with higher cost\Fleet cuts\More taxes\ Route cuts\ Etc. ) Where are we going, this is ONLY the beginning... No airplanes yet, I mean, no COMMERCIAL plane works without kerozen... Where are we going, what are your thought about it?
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Mensaje de Werkur737 - Enviado el 23 May 8:15 |
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My personal thought:
Its not permanently as look like...for a while only.., you just dont know how long..its like a fight to death battle, its not like an Arab conspiracy.....
Ever thought that Arabs wants to make them rich at all???
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
They are doing this, mostly without any suspicious from most of people, with the big help of the UNCLE SAM..
Oil fuel as most used will be long..
Emirates, Qatar, Gulf Air, among others...., they are bigger than ever, growing very fast on the last 15 years.
USA-Israel-Saudi Arabia partnership is for more 20 to 30 years, you will be died very old without seeing any big change!
Obama or Hillary will not stop the oil $$$$$ fast!
The other person at DC doesn't control this at all...Its about the oil companies, they rules Washington making the new guy there like another TOY from them!
We'll not have another Iraq or like an old Vietnam again soon...
Think....its just funny supports Israel and shake the Saudis hands on the next day.......
Bin Laden is only a DISTRACTING SHOW to most of the population...as FOOL they are..
CNN is a DC toy.., CBS either..
For the 9/11 WTC, DC needed just a REASON , to COMPLETE THE IRAQ JOB FROM 1991 from HIS DAD, and say to the Russians.... Hello...don't forget us ! Afghanistan, is just near to the Russia, Cold war is unfinished yet..!
DC likes doing distractions by CNN to most of the world....!
For me, the US government is not at DC, its at LANGLEY...
Heres an entertainment as a good reading:
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/43704
We need to get the safe feeling, not the safety at all!
The world works like VEGAS, a poker game! Your cent plus my two cents, i pay.....to see the next move!
Thoughts???
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Mensaje de FLX - Enviado el 23 May 9:57 |
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Mensaje de Werkur737 - Enviado el 23 May 10:22 |
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Mensaje de captain bill - Enviado el 24 May 9:24 |
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I do accept that politics permeate most aspects of private and commercial life today but I try to keep my personal political view to myself. I do agree that the situation that we are discussing has been influenced by man, man's greed and the need for some men to rule but in the aviation industry i do believe we all have a part to play in the current events.
I in the 1970s and 80s wanted more flights and cheaper flights. Oil prices were stable and low so we got them but possibly not in the fashion I expected for along came the LCCs. I wanted the choice of seat, the meal on the flight, the hot towel and all the other trappings that went along with flying in the 60s but I did not want to pay for it. In these days BA were charging £235.00 return GLA - LHR today I would not pay much more than £80.00 but I don't get the meal or hot towel or any of the other little perks that we got back in the days of yore. Do I miss them ? No not really for all I want to do now is get from point A to point B safely.
Where are we going ? Well I think we are about to see a further radical change in the way airline operate and I think we might see less flights with higher fares and it will only be the survival of the fittest. Smaller types will be more predominant as the high cost of flying will drive people back to the road and trains so the 736 and 318 as discussed on another thread along with the EM170/190 and Dash-8 etc might just sell a little better than they are today.
Long haul numbers will drop but not as great as the short to medium haul routs so Airbus and Boeing types will still be quite well filled.
It is as ever only an opinion.
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Mensaje de FLX - Enviado el 26 May 12:46 |
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Totally agree politics is a big part in aviation. Actually, politics often influence commercial aviation DIRECTLY(i.e. Politics+aviation). The evolving gov't aviation policies+regulations across the globe often hv direct impact to how we fly. The political <battles> between liberalization VS regulation in the airline industry hv fascinated me since the 1st major wave of airline dereg occurred in the U.S. in the late 70s/early80s.
Oil is a big part in avaition too which I hv commented in another thread http://www.airfleets.net/forum/topic-6315.htm
It's just that the issue raised by Werkur737 seem to be almost purely about <oil politics> than <oil+aviation> or <politics+aviation>.
Nothing wrong with discussing <oil politics> and stating political view in this forum at all. I just think Werkur737 will probably get more <mileage> and interesting stuff from forums specific to <oil politics>. It's a vastly more popular topic than aviation on the web so there're tons of huge forums about it.
Without straying too far fm aviation, here is my political view re high oil prices - well, it's actually more economical than politcal and boils down to 2 key factors: 1) Unprecendented demand and 2) mkt speculation.
1) Automobiles consume 1 of the largest share of the world's oil production. Fm 03 to 07, worldwide annual vehicle production grew fm under 60.7mil to 73mil. While growth in all mature economies basically stagnate, most of the increase occur in the largest emerging mkts such as China and India. Their annual growth rates are projected to stay @ double-digit at least for the nex few yrs as their middle-class population continue to grow @ exponential rates.
Same thing happens in commercial aviation. How many new jets do we think hv been delivered to China and India over the past 5yrs? e.g. China has 863 planes in 06 and by 2010, it'll hv over 1,500. Do we think Chinese airlines need to park-up any of their planes like their western counterparts? Not likely.
2) As this gigantic growth in demand is almost a certainty(i.e. Hard to imagine middle-class expansion in China and India will stop or even slow-down in the nex few yrs...), even dumb global investors know where to bet on oil futures: Up there. Making matters worse, gov'ts of emerging economies, backed by their new wealth, also join in this buying craze as they seek to build their own national strategic oil reserve(Common in western countries) which they didn't really hv before.
Oil is a worldwide commodity produced by many independent suppliers/countries and bought by many independent investors/buyers around the globe. Nearly half of all oil exports by the top 10 countries are by nations outside the Mid-East or OPEC(Norway exports more oil than the Emirates-World's #5 exporter). The U.S. is still the world's biggest oil importer but the total import of the top 2 to 5 importing countries already exceeded the U.S. Oil conspiracy by Washington+U.S. big oil companies+Arabs is a popular theory as described by Werkur737. It may somewhat be true 20-30yrs ago when the Mid-East was effectively the only significant exporter and the U.S. was effectively the only significant importer. However, given so many other big exporting countries and big importing countries in the world today, oil prices hv more to do with the economics of global supply(Slow growth as it takes huge investment & long time to built capacity) and demand(Growing rapidly, China ranks #3 and India ranks #7 in worldwide imports) than the political wishes of Washington and a few Mid-East countries.
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Mensaje de FLX - Enviado el 26 May 16:14 |
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It's easy to blame high oil prices on UNCLE SAM as he does like to play war games in the Mid-East. It is highly VISIBLE. It's easy to blame high oil prices on the Gulf states as they do actively support the rapid rise of their national carriers. It is highly VISIBLE. It also very easy to blame high oil prices on big oil companies as they do massive lobbying in Washington and do sell us most of the oil. It's highly VISIBLE.
However, is the world this simple? At some point, some will start to question whether easily VISIBLE things tell the whole story. War actions bid-up world oil prices and hurt the U.S. economy(The world's biggest gas-guzzler) more than anywhere else. Gulf states airlines hv nearly no domestic mkt(Both flight+pax). Int'l economic downturns will instantly
impact their total traffic and they do hv to pay for fuel @ the same price as other airlines outside their home countries. More U.S. jobs+corp profits are @ stake in aerospace, airlines, automotive and other industries than oil and each of them has lobbying group in Washington at least as powerful as the oil companies. Do we really think these groups are there because it's fun to be able say hello to the President and the House+Senate in person? If jets, flights and cars don't sell due to high oil prices, guess which side's voice will vastly overwhelm the other side in Washington? I'd argue that aside fm the oil companies, just about the only lobbying group in Washington which is quiet & happy with high oil prices now must be the environmentalist as U.S. consumers are forced to use less oil.....even feel glad that the Arabs are getting richer.....
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Mensaje de captain bill - Enviado el 26 May 18:48 |
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Mensaje de FLX - Enviado el 27 May 8:36 |
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Thanx captain bill:
This is my problem: I can get drift away off topic of aviation easily...
Now, back to my crystal ball for aviation's future in the nex 5yrs: 2 major trends(Extreme scenarios)
1) Further polarization of pax segments:
Airlines either focus on premium mkt or LCC-like mkt with nearly nothing in between. Service? It's all or nothing. Premium will get plusher(@ even more outrageous fares than today's): Door-to-door limo transfer, 65+ inches pitch, horizontal bed in a private cubicule along with all the caviar+champagne even for short flights.
LCC will get more bare-bone(But @ the same fares as today's std Y-fares): No check-in desk, no baggage allowance, 28- inches pitch seat with no recline, tray table nor reading light, hi-density layout along with 1 or less cabin attendant per flight even for long trips.
Higher premium vs econ seat ratio(Upto 100%) for long haul and lower ratio(Down to 0% even for mainline carriers) for shorthaul.
2) Aircraft downsizing+ETOPS domination across the fleets:
Longhaul:
- 744s+343s nearly extinct fm normal schedule.
- 345s/346s found only in a few premium-bias routes.
- 388s found only in routes to/fm the world's most congested airports(e.g. LHR,NRT,SYD,JFK,LAX,etc.)
- Slight increase in 777/330 flights to replace some 744s+343s capacity lost.
- 788s+old 752s to replace remaining 744s+343s capacity lost and some non-U.S. airlines 763ERs.
- Small fleets of premium cabin only, very light and long-range 73GER and 318LR begin to appear in inner city airports(London City, Tokyo Haneda) flying biz-heavy routes between global financial capitals and/or emerging mkt centers.
Shorthaul:
- New built 737NGs+A32x found mostly in emerging mkts or the biggest LCCs in mature mkts.
- Existing 737NGs+A32x fleets replace more 752s and widebodies on longer range/trunk routes.
- E-jets,CRJs,CSeries proliferate and completely replace 737NGs+A32x on shorter/thinner routes.
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