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Inicio >> Foro >> A GRIM FUTURE FOR MANY Foro sobre la aviación civil
A GRIM FUTURE FOR MANY
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Mensaje de captain bill - Enviado el 20 May 7:22 |
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On Friday of last week there was a seminar in London the subject being Aviation Finance, real boring not my thing at all but what did take my attention was a particular lady from a Merchant Bank in the City of London who's speciality was providing funding for the L.C.C. sector. During her talk and towards the end she indicated in very serious and matter of fact terms that within the next five years up to as many as seven European L.C.Cs. could go pop. She went on to say and obviously did not mention any names that there are quote some European L.C.Cs. who today struggle financially to survive end quote. So then what do the next five years hold for the L.C.Cs. in Europe I wonder.
On Saturday Richard Branson was speaking at a different venue and one of his remarks again was on Airline Finance due to the ever increasing cost of oil which he predicts will be $200.00 a barrel by this time next year. It was the regular front line carriers he referred too by saying that he felt the only way for many around the world to survive was through merger and acquisition. He went on to say it would make sense for some mainland European airlines to merge and to fly a joint service rather than two or three no profitable Airlines.
He stated that due to the strong financial setup within The Virgin Group, Virgin Atlantic was healthy.
We all know that he and Mike Bishop at B.M.I. are talking quite a lot as Dick Branson would love to get his hands on B.M.I. but The Bish refuses at this stage to merge. I think (sorry Mike but I have to say this) I think you will eventually come round and either sell out to SRB or go down the old share option route but don't retire just yet as there is a lot of mileage left in you. WMC
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Mensaje de whitehatter - Enviado el 20 May 11:48 |
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Branson bluster.
Lufthansa will buy BMI later this year. They have a legal right to buy Michael Bishop out thanks to a call option on his shares, and have already said as much. More pressing is the sale of Singapore Airlines' shares in VS.
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Mensaje de SJR - Enviado el 22 May 23:31 |
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Mensaje de captain bill - Enviado el 09 Aug 17:55 |
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I can hardly believe that since I sent this message so many airlines have gone to the wall. I do believe a few more will follow when you look at the financial results of many of the worlds top airlines. Even the high turnover LCCs are feeling the pinch and many as we know will be dropping services this winter.
Any ideas as to which airlines we should watch as the year progresses ?
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Mensaje de G-NIKO - Enviado el 10 Aug 22:40 |
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i'm concerned about FlyGlobesan as there ditching there 733's next year and also i heard there 736's are going to Korea this year, and they do not have any orders witch is worrying since there fleet will be quite small.
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Mensaje de captain bill - Enviado el 10 Aug 8:11 |
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I share your concern G-NIKO and the sad thing is I have booked with them for TFS in November. They are offering 22 2x2 seats on the 738 to TFS to try and attract some further revenue and also to get passengers back who want a little more leg room and privacy but how long under the financial situation that prevails today can so many LCCs keep going or for that matter some of the main line carriers.
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Mensaje de EMALAD - Enviado el 10 Aug 14:26 |
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I do hope that BMIbaby doesnt disappear when BMI get taken over as I think they are one of the better Lo-cost airlines in the UK, I would prefer to fly with them and Easyjet rather than anyone else.
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Mensaje de FLX - Enviado el 11 Aug 10:21 |
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I tend to think high oil prices hit LCCs much harder than network carriers. I don't hv actual data to quote but it's easy to imagine fuel costs represent a higher % of the total op cost in a typical LCC than in a network carrier. Also, it's not like LCCs can just scale back their ops/reduce flights to battle high fuel cost. Many LCCs fly relatively brand new fleets and parking most of them on the ground won't reduce a cent of the hefty lease/bank payments.
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Mensaje de EI-DUB - Enviado el 14 Aug 11:26 |
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Mensaje de captain bill - Enviado el 01 Sep 10:56 |
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Well a few more have gone since our shutdown for holidays.
Zoom to name one and yes EI-DUB Ryanair are worth the watching although Mr. O'Leary says he will break even this year I have my own ideas about that with all the aircraft being moth balled over the winter.
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Mensaje de Mabel - Enviado el 03 Sep 16:56 |
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The only profitable airlines are the Evil Religion airlines such as Emirates, Etihad, Gulf Air, Saudia, Kuwait Airways, Oman Air, etc. because they get their fuel for a fraction of what the rest of the civilized world pays. That's why they can afford to provide ultra-luxury service and completely overhaul their fleet every 4-6 years. Unless oil prices stop rising astronomically, the global aviation industry will be close to 100% owned by evil Muslims within 5-10 years!
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Mensaje de speedbird9468 - Enviado el 03 Sep 21:10 |
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I'm not sure about the prices of oil around the world. But here in Brazil its holding steady. There hasn't been an increase for some time. Although I predict there will be one soon. I think TAM must be doing well also. Also another4 new airline is to start up soon called Azul usinf E-195's They have about 30 on order if I'm not mistaken.
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Mensaje de FLX - Enviado el 04 Sep 13:55 |
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I don't know about any of U but I find Mabel's remarks against certain religion at least a bit disrespectful. In the spirit of liberty, of course anyone can express their view freely no matter how radical/extreme. However, this is afterall an aviation forum and probably not the best place to share personal negative view targeted @ certain religion. I hope participants in this forum will not forget that this is a global discussion platform where we get participants/viewers from all corners of the world including those from MUSLIM countries both inside and outside the Mid-East/Gulf region. It'll be a shame if this kind of religious remarks discourage aviation enthusiasts with different social/religious backgrounds from participating in this forum.
Here is my own <radical> view: I was born a Christian but I strongly believe it's absurb to label/consider everything(i.e. Airlines, people, countries) with a Muslim background is <EVIL>. I also think many on this forum from the <civilized world> share the same view.
I also hv problem buying into the theory that gov't fuel subsidies(If such subsidy exists at all) is the primary reason airlines based in the main oil-exporting nations in the Mid-East/Gulf region enjoy amazing growth. If such theory is true, why are we not seeing similar growth/expansion rate in airlines such as Aeroflot, Air Canada, Malaysian Airlines, etc. - all based in major oil exporting nations OUTSIDE the Mid-East? Russia, Canada and Malaysia all hv a long history of practicing gov't subsidy in their aviation industry. Moreover, the theory works well only if the Mid-East/Gulf region airlines also get fuel cost advantage in other countries' airports where they fly. Correct me if I'm wrong but the last time I check, more than 90% revenue of Emirates, Etihad, Gulf Air, Saudia, Kuwait Airlines, Oman, etc. is derived from their Int'l traffic transiting thur their Mid-East hubs, not to their respective countries.
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Mensaje de speedbird9468 - Enviado el 04 Sep 16:15 |
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I have visited some Muslim countries many times and know many Muslim people. They are in fact some of the best people I know. I think we should look towards a great super power that loves oil and is suffering with its economy etc etc for causing hate between the religions. It is not an Evil Religion Mabel!!!!!! Its just. I bet you don't even know any Muslims!! cause if you do you would'nt say this. Also This is about Avaition not Religion
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Mensaje de captain bill - Enviado el 05 Sep 19:32 |
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Mensaje de captain bill - Enviado el 12 Sep 6:02 |
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So then FUTURA has gone at the start of the week and now XL AIRWAYS. I just wonder who will be next.
This is the worst situation that I can remember for a long long time and it will get even more severe as we go into the winter and beyond.
THE DAYS OF CHEAP TRAVEL MUST BE OVER !!!!
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Mensaje de speedbird9468 - Enviado el 12 Sep 12:36 |
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You could be right Cpt Bill. Although Fr and ezy probablt have large cash reserves and are able to sustain themselves, there must a limit as to what they can financially sustain. Could we being seeing the start of a lot of LCC's closing or going bankrupt. Secondly, This in efect could have dramatic affect on smaller regional airports like BOH, BRS, EXT, etc etc. In that certain routes will close or reduced frequency or total pull out or closure.
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Mensaje de captain bill - Enviado el 12 Sep 14:52 |
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Mr. O'Leary said today he can't feel sorry for passengers who book with these financially unstable companies and then complain when they go bust. People should book with FR he said. How sad is that ?
Willie Walsh of BA recons that as many as 30 European airlines will go in the next 4 to 6 months and if this is the case the European Aviation Landscape will change drastically. There will be so many people looking for work and I remember back in the early 70s this was also the situation and many pilots never flew again.
yes it is the smaller regional airports who have worked so hard to bring services for the benefit of the local population so they don't have to travel miles for flights.
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Mensaje de speedbird9468 - Enviado el 13 Sep 23:36 |
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Mr O 'Leary said in interesting comment that in part I disagree with. I mean. How would you define finacially unstable? surely its the last year or so that these closures have started to happen. I thought htat Futura and XL were well established airlines. After all its not the airlines fault the oil prices are becoming out of control. I would love to see Mr O'leary's face when and if FR have financial problems. In addition airlines are staring to introduce taxes/charges for silly things now to try and compete and make money. Another thing thats scares me os safety. In that airlines might cut certain corners to save $$$$.
As for regional Airports it is a worrying thought. I sometimes think that major airlines could also serve these to an extent that it relieves the pressure at LHR etc etc instead of fighting for slots. I mean. I used to live very close to BOH. Which is very capable of handling 767/A330 size aircraft. Now I don't mind travelling a few hours by ground transport to ge to my destination. So I would like to see for example, DL at BOH, NW at BRS so this would realy help the problem at the major London airports. But I know this won't happen. Or another Example would be for charetr flights only to use regiuonal airports. So that all major carriers would use the Major's
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